U.S. policy at this stage is aimed at weakening China and, as a consequence, Russia

The United States Enters a More Aggressive Geopolitical Phase

At this stage, U.S. policy is clearly aimed at weakening China and, as a consequence, Russia. Washington has entered a more assertive and confrontational phase, using energy markets and geopolitical pressure as strategic tools.

China’s Role as the World’s Manufacturing Hub

China, often referred to as the “factory of the world,” relies on stable, uninterrupted, and discounted energy supplies to sustain its industrial overproduction model. Until 2025, Beijing successfully diversified its oil imports, primarily through Iran and Venezuela, securing crude at reduced prices.

Iran and Venezuela: Strategic Oil Suppliers Under Pressure

China has been the main buyer of oil from Venezuela and Iran. However, Iran is currently facing a deep political crisis, approaching the threshold of both internal unrest and potential external military conflict.

In the event of a collapse of the Ayatollah regime, Iran’s geopolitical orientation would likely shift toward the West, effectively removing a critical oil supplier from China’s energy network.

Russia as China’s Last Major Energy Partner

In this scenario, China would be left with Russia as its primary energy partner. However, Russia faces mounting difficulties:

• Limited access to global markets

• Sanctions-related export constraints

• Damage to energy infrastructure

• Growing challenges in sustaining both military operations and oil exports

This creates a structural energy risk for China, which depends on predictable and uninterrupted supply chains.

Energy Infrastructure and Supply Instability

The destruction and degradation of energy infrastructure directly undermine Russia’s export capacity. For China, this represents a critical vulnerability, as industrial stability depends on continuous energy flows — a condition that is no longer guaranteed.

Strategic Objectives of the United States

From Washington’s perspective, the goals are clear:

• Weaken China’s industrial and energy base

• Reduce Russia’s geopolitical leverage

• Force Russia toward a settlement in Europe

• Increase pressure on oil markets aligned with Beijing

China is already experiencing a crisis of overproduction, and energy pressure further exacerbates internal economic stress.

Taiwan, Trade Policy, and Global Energy Control

The broader strategic objective is to:

• Deter a potential invasion of Taiwan

• Force China to revise its trade policy with the United States

• Reassert U.S. dominance over global energy flows and strategic resources

Energy has become a central weapon in geopolitical competition, shaping the balance of power between Washington, Beijing, and Moscow.

Krol and Partners

Geopolitics | Energy Markets | Global Strategy

Disclaimer:

This content represents the personal analytical opinion of the author and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments.